By Mark Sumner
Daily Kos Staff
Hallelujah! A Manhattan jury has found Donald Trump guilty of 34 counts of falsifying business records to protect his 2016 campaign for the White House.
Each charge is a class “E” felony, with a maximum sentence of four years. But before you get too excited, it’s unlikely that New York Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan will impose such a penalty. Any jail time Trump receives is likely to be brief. Frustrating as it may be, Trump—a first-time offender—will probably be given a fine, community service, and some form of probation.
But don’t let that stop you from celebrating. Donald Trump is a convicted felon. That seems like something that always should have been true. Now it is.
Trump has been free on bail since he was arraigned on April 4. With an appeal certain to follow this conviction, don’t expect to see him led out of the courthouse in handcuffs, as satisfying as that might be.
In determining Trump’s sentence, Merchan has to consider the usual factors such as Trump’s age, the circumstances of the crime, and the lack of previous convictions. But in this case, he also has to look at practical concerns. For example, how does the Secret Service protect Trump if he’s in jail? Merchan may also feel some pressure to give Trump a more lenient sentence out of concern for possible violence if he is sent to jail after Trump threatened, “It’ll be bedlam in the country.”
It would be nice to think that Merchan might also consider just how many times Trump threatened him, prosecutors, their families, and everyone else involved in seeing that Trump got at least a small taste of justice. Maybe a few years in a state prison isn’t completely off the table.
Being a convicted felon will not prevent Trump from running for office. Independent candidate Lyndon LaRouche ran for president five times after being convicted of felony fraud in 1988, including a campaign conducted while LaRouche was in federal prison. However, no major party candidate has ever been convicted of a felony.
How the results of the trial affect Trump’s political chances is unclear. A New York Times/Siena College poll in November indicated a massive swing that would cost Trump 14 points if he was convicted. An Ipsos poll in March showed one-third of independent voters less likely to support Trump if he was convicted. However, a Reuters/Ipsos poll in April showed only a 2-point shift toward Biden if Trump was convicted.
Trump still faces charges for stolen classified documents, conspiracy to block the counting of electoral votes, and election interference in Georgia. However, none of those cases are likely to be heard before the election in November.
No matter the outcome in any of his trials, Trump isn’t going to be stopped by a prosecutor, a judge, or a jury. Even if he were convicted of every count against him, he remains a threat to our nation and our system of government. Much as it would be nice to wake up tomorrow and find the threat of Trump lifted without any effort from the rest of us, that’s not going to happen.
He needs to be soundly defeated at the ballot box.
The most important vote in 2024 isn’t happening in a jury room—it’s happening wherever Americans turn out to vote. The outcome of this trial only makes it more important to vote in this election, and to do everything you can to get others to turn out and vote for President Joe Biden.
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