Kamala Harris herself performed better than I could have ever
imagined. She was disciplined, focused and charismatic. She’s
a brilliant orator and debater. By Cosecant
Community
Saturday, November 16, 2024
at 4:34:20p MST
REPUBLISHED BY:
I’m
off cable news for the next 4+ years, only getting little glimpses here
and there of what’s going on in print. But the takes I’ve been reading
from the so-called pundit class have been really bad.
I’m not sure the presidential election was ever winnable. Kamala
Harris performed fantastically well. Much better that I expected. The
campaign was also very good. It’s painful because the polling, which was
also pretty good, showed a coin toss race. Unfortunately the polling
error was not in our favor.
Inflation is a nearly impossible force to counter. I remember
Americans going nuts over small blips in gas prices in 2012. Food and
shelter price increases feel ten times worse. Here’s a look at
how governments in the G7 have fared (or are projected to fare*) since
2022
Country |
Party in Power |
Previous election |
Recent election |
change |
UK |
Conservative |
43.6% |
23.7% |
-19.9% |
France |
Ensemble |
38.5% |
24.5% |
-14% |
Japan |
LDP |
48.1% |
38.5% |
-9.6% |
Italy |
The League |
7.8% |
37% |
-29.2% |
Canada* |
Liberal |
32.6% |
23.3%(polling) |
-9.3% |
Germany* |
SPD |
25.7% |
15.5%(polling) |
-10.2% |
US(Pres) |
Democratic |
51.3% |
48.3%(projected) |
-3% |
Add to this the fact that the war in Gaza put Democrats in an
impossible position. Polls went from Biden +4% to Biden -4% in fall of
2023 and never really bounced back. I still believe that if the war had
ended, Harris might well have won.
There are lessons to be learned from every election, but the
Democrats ran a very good campaign. Kamala Harris’s favorability
increased 13%. She dramatically closed the gap on the economy and
immigration. On exit polling, “defence of democracy” was cited as the
most important issue, followed by the economy and then abortion (so much
for Republicans owning the top two issues).
Kamala Harris herself performed better than I could have ever
imagined. She was disciplined, focused and charismatic. She’s
a brilliant orator and debater.
The ground game also worked just like it was supposed to. Harris ran
2-3 points better than her average in the 5 battleground states that are
far away from Mexico.
Pundits are gonna pundit and there will be lots of
over-interpretation to be had, but the bottom line is this: sometimes
life deals your side a bad hand, and there’s not much you can do about
it.
But, but, what if she picked Josh Shapiro???? VP
candidates hardly ever make a difference. Even if she won PA, she still
loses MI and WI. There was potential for some unwanted palace intrigue
here too as Shapiro didn’t really want to be chosen. This might have
saved Bob Casey though.
But, but, what about The View Interview, Biden’s Garbage comment, Joe Rogan????
No campaign is perfect. It’s like asking a pitcher who threw a
2-hitter, “why didn’t you pitch a perfect game?” Even when Democrats
don’t make mistakes, Republicans make them up anyways (“You didn’t build
that”, “Lipstick on a pig”). If the debate, which was watched by 67
million people only created a temporary 2 point bump, no singular event
was going to make much of a difference.
But, but, if they only tried this message with the working class….
Give me a break. They had all the best coms people working on this and
focus-tested the campaign messaging to death. Whatever message you think
they should have used, they checked and it wouldn’t have worked any
better.
But, but, Biden should have dropped out sooner……. Okay,
yes, probably. But this would not have made a difference either. Let’s
game this out. Harris would have had a huge advantage in the primary as a
sitting vice president. She would have inherited a lot of Biden’s team
and a ton of institutional support.
Democrats had no appetite for a
protracted primary process facing an existential threat. With her
orating and debating abilities and competent campaign management, she
would have very likely won any regular primary in a walk. During the
primary, she would have taken damage and possibly have had to take more
positions to the left of where she ran in the general election. Trump’s
campaign would also be much better prepared for her. She had a
phenomenal first month. You weren’t going to beat Brat Summer as an
introduction.
This wasn’t a football game. The score still matters. The senate
could be 57-43 right now and out of reach until 2030. We could be
staring at a strong 25 seat Republican majority in the house. Not to
mention a possible wipeout in state and local races that were mostly a
wash.
Now for the bright side:
The House
Democrats are nearly guaranteed to regain the majority in 2026. Aside
from 2002 when Bush’s approval was 70% and 1998 during the Clinton
impeachment overreach, you have to go back to 1934 to find an election
where the party out of power didn’t gain 4 seats.
The Senate
This will be a bit harder. Democrats have a good shot at North
Carolina and Maine. Iowa looks possible as well as Joni super-pro-life
Ernst won in 2020 with only 51.7% support in a state with a draconian,
unpopular abortion ban. People write off Florida, but remember that
Nelson lost by 0.1% in 2018. With Trump choosing the candidates, we can
probably count on at least one Roy Moore, Richard Mourdock, Todd Akin
situation. Admittedly, this would have been much easier if Bob Casey had
pulled out a win. (edit: he still might have an outside shot now down
only 19K votes)
The Presidency
Democrats have a deep bench for 2028. Donald Trump has remade the
Republican Party to serve only himself. He’s destroyed its institutions
and driven out a lot of the smart people. Nobody else can pull off what
he did politically. Look at how his chosen candidates have fared when
he’s not on the ballot. The low propensity voters that he got off the
couch aren’t coming out to vote for anyone else and the suburban voters
he lost aren’t coming back to a party enthralled to crazy.
Right now
I know it looks bad, but the defining feature of Donald’s Trump’s
tenure is utter and complete incompetence. Harris was right when she
said that Trump would have no guardrails, but he also has nobody around
him who knows how to get anything done. He’s chosen the dumbest of the
dumb to work for him.
Look at what happened last time he was in office. He passed one
stupid tax bill. The bill is now expiring and also very unpopular. All
of his executive orders can be undone with a pen in 2028. A great many
of them will be held up in court since he doesn’t have anyone competent
writing them. The non-partisan public service is still there, and
Biden’s administration has spent the past two years putting up
roadblocks to safeguard it. When Trump tries to purge it, there will be
many lawsuits grinding the process to a halt. He won’t get to remake the
courts since Republicans didn’t hold up 2 years of Obama’s nominees
this time, and there is no more Mitch McConnell.
Trump is also declining fairly rapidly. It becomes harder and harder
to bully people when you can’t finish a sentence. And if you think that
JD Vance and others will step in to fill the void, there is one constant
about Donald Trump: his ego will never allow it. He will cling to every
tendril of power until the last bit of orange fades from his face.
In two years, Trump will be a lame duck with a hostile congress and
taking the blame for a bad mid-term. In four years, he will be gone
forever. The Republicans may be craven, but their corporate masters will
never support a full-on coup d’etat for a lunatic.
"The defining feature of Donald’s Trump’s
tenure is utter and complete incompetence.... He’s chosen the dumbest of the
dumb to work for him."