A renewed push by the Trump administration to settle Russia’s war in Ukraine is jolting European governments that are fearful Washington is laying the groundwork for an ultimatum to Kyiv on Moscow’s terms.
The flurry of diplomatic engagements has left Ukrainian and European diplomats alarmed that President Trump and his team have accepted Russia’s rationale for the war, which Vladimir Putin launched in 2022 in order to conquer Ukraine and destroy its democratic government, precipitating the deadliest conflict in Europe since World War II.
It is the latest seesaw movement in Trump’s policy on Ukraine since retaking office. The president has repeatedly flared anger and frustration with Ukraine over its insistence on defending itself, only to reverse course days or weeks later, temporarily embracing European partnerships, the NATO alliance and Kyiv’s prospects for victory.
The administration seemed to settle on a long-term course this week, publishing a National Security Strategy document Friday asserting that Europe has “unrealistic expectations” for the outcome of the war and suggesting it would work to cultivate political “resistance” to Europe’s “current trajectory.”
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, in perception and practice, should not be seen as an expanding alliance, the document reads, a nod to a long-standing Russian argument justifying its military posture on the continent.
Americans overwhelmingly oppose Trump’s current approach by a 2-to-1 margin — which would coerce Ukraine to give up its sovereign territory, including land that Russia has failed to secure on the battlefield despite suffering more than a million casualties. A recent Gallup poll found that Republicans disapprove of Trump’s policy on Ukraine more than any other issue.
Still, the president’s advisors seem to be warming to a plan that would force Ukraine to concede territory in exchange for nonbinding commitments to secure what remains of the country going forward.
Steve Witkoff, a former real estate developer, and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law who negotiated the Abraham Accords among Middle East countries during Trump’s first term, are leading the current effort, shuttling between Moscow and Miami, where they have hosted Ukrainian diplomats, to work out a peace plan. The current framework is based on a 28-point document drafted by the Americans with consultation from the Russians.
A phone conversation between Witkoff and his Russian counterpart, a transcript of which leaked last month, revealed Witkoff offering tips to Moscow on how to win over Trump’s sympathies. Russian officials have also expressed confidence to the local press that Trump’s team understands their demands.
“There is a possibility that the U.S. will betray Ukraine on the issue of territory without clarity on security guarantees,” Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, said on a call among European leaders this week, according to a transcript obtained by Der Spiegel.
“They are playing games,” Friedrich Merz, chancellor of Germany, said of the Americans on the same call, “both with you and with us.”
In Ukraine, prominent analysts have questioned whether a peace plan that cedes territory would even be upheld by soldiers and generals on the battlefield. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has insisted to Trump that the country’s territorial integrity, as well as future security guarantees, must be the cornerstones of a viable peace agreement.
But Trump could endanger Ukraine’s ability to fight on if he ultimately loses patience, experts said.
“The U.S. still provides intelligence assistance, which is important, and has so far been willing to sell weapons to European countries to transfer to NATO,” said Brian Taylor, director of the Moynihan Institute of Global Affairs at Syracuse University.
The United States has already halted direct aid to Ukraine’s war effort, instead agreeing to a NATO arrangement that sells weapons and equipment to Europe that are, in turn, provided to Kyiv.
“If the U.S. stops even doing that — and it would be quite a radical policy change if the U.S. is unwilling even to sell weapons to European countries — then Europe will have to continue on the path it is already on, which is to bolster its own defense production capacity,” Taylor said.
Macron, Merz and other European allies, including British Prime Minister Kier Starmer and the king of England, have implored the president to remain steadfast in support of Ukraine — and to increase the strain on Moscow that they insist could ultimately change Putin’s calculus over time.
European leaders are debating whether to deploy a portion of $220 billion in Russian assets, frozen in European banks since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, to Kyiv in the form of assistance, or whether to hold on to the funds as a point of future negotiations.
“If the Trump administration and the Europeans are willing to do so, there is real pressure that can be brought to bear on a Russian military and economy that is under increasing strain,” said Kyle Balzer, a scholar at the conservative American Enterprise Institute. “Russia’s economic growth has taken a heavy hit due to lower energy prices and Russia’s growing defense burden. And the Russian army is taking casualties that the Russian people won’t be able to ignore forever.”
Speaking with reporters this week, Trump said that roughly 7,000 Russian soldiers are dying on the battlefield on a weekly basis — a staggering number in modern warfare. Comparatively, over eight years of the U.S. war in Iraq, fewer than 4,500 American soldiers died.
“Such pressure will only have a decisive impact if the Trump administration stops giving Putin hope that Russia can secure a favorable agreement in return for deals that benefit American businesses,” Balzer added. “The West must attack Russia’s resolve and convince Putin that he cannot achieve his goals. Continuing to give Putin hope makes that an unlikely prospect.”
